The first snow of the season is on its way — and it may arrive sooner than many Americans expect. The first snowfall forecast for 2025–2026 signals the official start of winter across much of the United States, bringing excitement for cozy nights, hot cocoa, and holiday lights — but also travel headaches, icy roads, and storm warnings.
From the Rockies to the Great Lakes and the Northeast, forecasters predict an early, colder, and snowier winter this year — a pattern influenced by the developing La Niña climate phase.
First Snowfall Forecast 2025–2026: Overview
| Agency | Forecast Authority |
|---|---|
| Department | National Weather Service (NWS) / NOAA |
| Forecast Period | September 2025 – January 2026 |
| Peak Snow Season | November – December 2025 |
| Main Impact Areas | Midwest · Northeast · Rockies |
| Top Snow-Prone Cities | Buffalo · Minneapolis · Anchorage |
| Advisory | Travel caution · Icy roads · Early winter storms |
| Official Website | weather.gov |
Winter 2025–2026 Outlook: Colder and Stormier
Meteorologists are predicting heavy storms at both the start and end of the 2025–2026 winter season — especially across the Midwest, Great Lakes, and Northeast. While a midseason lull could briefly reduce snowfall totals in January, forecasters warn that multiple early and late-season storms may still create one of the most disruptive winters in years.
“Storm systems tracking from the Rockies to the East Coast could deliver heavy snow and freezing rain during key travel periods,” said NOAA climate analyst Thomas Grenville in an October 2025 update.
Expected Timeline for the First Snowfall 2025–2026
| Region | Estimated First Snowfall Period |
|---|---|
| Northern Rockies (Montana, Idaho, Wyoming) | September – early October |
| Western Mountain States (Utah, Colorado) | Variable – early October |
| Pacific Northwest (Washington, Oregon) | Late October |
| Upper Midwest & Great Lakes | Late October – November |
| Northeast (NY, VT, ME, MA) | Late October – December |
| Mid-Atlantic & Central Plains | November – December |
| Southern States (TX, OK, TN) | Late December – January |
| Deep South & Florida | Rare snowfall / unlikely |
Top 10 Snowiest U.S. Cities Forecast for 2025–2026
| Rank | City | State | Expected Snowfall |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Buffalo | NY | 90 – 100 inches |
| 2 | Minneapolis | MN | 75 – 85 inches |
| 3 | Bismarck | ND | 70 – 80 inches |
| 4 | Salt Lake City | UT | 65 – 75 inches |
| 5 | Fargo | ND | 70 inches |
| 6 | Duluth | MN | 80 – 90 inches |
| 7 | Rochester | NY | 80 inches |
| 8 | Erie | PA | 75 – 85 inches |
| 9 | Anchorage | AK | 100 – 110 inches |
| 10 | Marquette | MI | 90 – 100 inches |
Early Winter Storm Outlook
The first major winter storms of 2025–26 are expected to begin as early as late October, intensifying through early December. Forecast models show systems forming in Western Canada, sweeping eastward across the Rockies and Great Plains, and strengthening into Nor’easters along the East Coast.
These early storms may bring:
- Heavy snow bursts in the Great Lakes and Northeast
- Icy travel conditions on interstates
- Flight disruptions from Chicago to Boston
- Wind chills dropping below 0 °F in Northern Plains
Regional Highlights
Rocky Mountains
Early snow expected by mid-September in higher elevations. Ski resorts in Colorado and Utah may open earlier than usual.
Northeast & Mid-Atlantic
Frequent coastal storms expected between late November and January. New York City and Boston may see above-average snowfall compared with the last two winters.
Midwest & Great Lakes
Classic lake-effect snow belts (Buffalo, Erie, Cleveland) could be hit hardest. Some areas may reach near-record totals.
Southern U.S.
Winter remains mild, but Texas Panhandle and northern Alabama/Tennessee could experience brief snow episodes in January 2026.
Travel & Safety Advisory
Officials urge Americans to prepare now for the season’s first storms. The first snowfall can often catch drivers off guard — especially when black ice forms overnight.
Safety Tips
- Check tire pressure and antifreeze before November.
- Carry an emergency kit: blanket, flashlight, nonperishable snacks.
- Avoid speeding in snow or sleet conditions.
- Monitor local NWS alerts via weather.gov/alerts.
“The first snow brings wonder — and danger. Preparation is the difference between inconvenience and crisis,” warns the Federal Highway Safety Administration.
Quick Facts
- Earliest U.S. measurable snow: Sept 3 (1961, Montana)
- Latest first snow on record for NYC: Jan 29 (1995)
- Average first snow for Chicago: Nov 16
- Expected La Niña strength: Moderate – strong through Dec 2025
FAQs
When is the first snow expected in the U.S. this year?
Late September in the Rockies, moving eastward through November for most northern states.
Which regions will get the most snow?
The Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern Rockies are forecast to lead totals.
Will 2025–26 be colder than last winter?
Yes — slightly colder and snowier, driven by a strong La Niña pattern.
Which month will see the heaviest snowfall?
December 2025 – January 2026, especially across the Midwest and Northeast.
Are southern states likely to see snow?
Only briefly in northern Texas, Tennessee, or the Carolinas; most southern regions stay dry.
Final Words
The first snowflakes of 2025–2026 will arrive earlier than usual — a clear sign that a colder, more active winter is coming. While families look forward to cozy days indoors, meteorologists are urging travelers and drivers to brace for early storms, icy roads, and above-average snowfall across much of the U.S.
Winter joy and winter caution will go hand in hand this year.
